Origin Materials

1. Pitmans 14 maart 2025 07:10

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   Leest vooral als "Alles gaat volgens plan"
   
   Origin Materials, Inc. Reports Operating and Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024
   
   Business Wire - Thu, March 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM GMT+1 20 min read
   
   – On Track for Eight CapFormer Lines in 2025, Ramping to 2026 Revenue Expectation of $110M to $140M –
   
   – Projecting Run-Rate EBITDA Positive in 2026 –
   
   – Arranging Debt Financing to Ramp Manufacturing Capacity and Maintain Healthy Cash Floor, No Additional Equity Capital Anticipated –
   
   WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif., March 13, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Origin Materials, Inc. ("Origin," "Origin Materials," or the "Company") (Nasdaq: ORGN, ORGNW), a technology company with a mission to enable the world’s transition to sustainable materials, today announced financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024.
   
   "This year was transformational for Origin and Q4 was an inflection point for our caps and closures business," said Origin CEO and Co-Founder John Bissell. "In 2024 we introduced the world to the first fully recyclable 100% PET cap. In Q4, we finished fabrication of our first PET cap manufacturing line and have since turned on commercial production. In February 2025, we announced three new CapFormers are nearing completion, and we expect them to complete factory acceptance testing during Q2. We also confirmed we expect to have eight CapFormer lines online by the end of 2025. Simply put, we are deploying CapFormers as fast as practical to address the substantial and growing customer demand for our products. Our team is now laser focused on Origin’s transformation into a closures manufacturing organization with healthy revenue and margins. In recent weeks, we have made millions of caps, many of which are now in the hands of some of the largest and most famous brands in the world to continue their qualification procedures and although these qualification shipments will not count as sales, they do demonstrate significant and important commercial pull-through. We look forward to naming customers in the weeks or months ahead. Many customers prefer to make an announcement as they draw nearer to having their products with Origin caps on shelves, which we anticipate taking place in Q3 or potentially as soon as late Q2."
   
   Bissell added: "As we stand up manufacturing, continuous improvement is the rule." Forthcoming lines are expected to incorporate Origin design modifications to increase throughput and result in superior unit economics. To reiterate and expand on our previous guidance: we expect gross margins for caps in the mid double-digits and capital cost per line to end up in the mid-single digit millions. To further improve margins, we may also choose to acquire PET extruders for installations where we believe vertical integration is optimal versus renting extrusion or purchasing sheet from our manufacturing partners. We anticipate the payback period for the average CapFormer line, separate from any extruders, to be less than 18 months. We plan to stand up additional Origin CapFormer lines at a roughly similar pace to our 2025 deployment in 2026, accelerating as capital allows. We also expect full-year 2026 revenue of $110M to $140M, separate from potential licensing revenue."
   
   Lastly, Origin is updating guidance for expected profitability timing primarily due to a delayed start to line 1 commercial production and the subsequent impact on timing for lines 2 through 8: We now expect to achieve EBITDA positive results on a run-rate basis by the end of 2026, updated from the first half of 2026. Bissell continued: "The fundamentals of our business are strong, including substantial demand for the product, high barriers to entry, and strong strategic interest in Origin across customers and partners. We are increasingly in the enviable position of having indicative demand that significantly exceeds our fulfillment capability for several years to come. Our bigger challenge is to bring supply online as fast as practical to better meet demand and gain market share. We continue to make strides pursuing the opportunity to convert a meaningful amount of market share in the $65B annual caps and closure market to Origin’s PET caps."
   
   Company Fourth Quarter and Recent Business Highlights
   
   Origin Materials reported quarterly revenue of $9.2 million generated by the Company’s supply chain activation program. The Company also made significant progress in commercializing its caps and closures business.
   
   We announced the commencement of PET cap commercial production. We expect our first CapFormer line, in Reed City, Michigan, to produce hundreds of millions of PET caps each year. With the commencement of line 1 production, we anticipate many strategic benefits will be open to us, including more favorable equipment financing terms, more demand for our products, and increased interest in licensing.
   
   We confirmed that three new CapFormer lines are nearing completion, maintaining our target of having eight lines online by the end of 2025. These new systems will be completed and rolled out on a staggered basis. We have also successfully expanded our CapFormer manufacturing relationships in order to ensure redundancy and additional capacity.
   
   We are providing more information on timing to revenue realization. Following commencement of commercial production mid-February we have increased our ability to perform customer qualification. We expect to begin realizing caps revenue in earnest concurrently with our next three lines commencing production and customer order fulfillment during Q3, with meaningful revenue generation by Q4 of this year and a strong 2025 exit revenue run-rate. Similarly, we expect the first products with Origin caps to appear on shelves in Q3 2025 or potentially as early as late Q2 2025.
   
   We are in the process of securing debt financing to fund our capital equipment build-out and working capital needs to maintain a healthy minimum cash floor at all times. The expected short payback period per line makes for an attractive financing opportunity for lenders, and we are curating a number of financing proposals for all lines we have on order and in production. We do not anticipate needing to raise equity capital to finance our growth.
   
   We significantly enhanced our IP portfolio, deepening Origin’s technology advantage. Our patent portfolio now comprises over 70 issued patents, as well as dozens of pending applications. In January 2025, five applications published covering single and double-walled closures, knurled and threaded closures, and methods of making our closures via thermoforming. Origin’s IP lets us make a new, lighter, better-performing cap than our competitors can make, using a proprietary CapForming method our competitors can't duplicate.
2. Pitmans 14 maart 2025 07:11

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   • Pitmans

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   Results for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024
   
   Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $102.9 million as of December 31, 2024.
   
   Revenue for the fourth quarter was $9.2 million compared to $13.1 million in the prior-year period, generated by the Company’s supply chain activation program.
   
   Revenue for the full year was $31.3 million compared to $28.8 million in the prior-year period, generated mainly by the Company’s supply chain activation program.
   
   Operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $16.2 million compared to $19.8 million in the prior-year period, a decrease of $3.6 million consisting primarily of a $2.7 million decrease in research and development expenses and a $1.3 million decrease in general and administrative expenses.
   
   Full year 2024 operating expenses were $85.3 million compared to $60.1 million in the prior-year period, an increase of $25.2 million driven primarily by $15.2 million in non-cash impairment charges, a $5.4 million increase in general and administrative expenses, a $7.4 million increase in depreciation expenses driven by Origin 1 coming online during the fourth quarter of 2023, partially offset by a $2.8 million decrease in research and development expenses. A significant portion of costs incurred during the year of 2023 were capitalized as part of the development of Origin 1, whereas the costs to operate and maintain the plant are included in general and administrative expenses in 2024.
   
   Net loss was $13.5 million for the fourth quarter compared to $10.4 million in the prior-year period. Full year 2024 net loss was $83.7 million compared to net income of $23.8 million in the prior-year period, a decrease of $107.5 million driven primarily by $25.2 million increase in total operating expenses, a $32.8 million decrease in fair value of common stock warrants liability, and a $41.7 million decrease in fair value of earnout liability.
   
   Adjusted EBITDA loss was $11.1 million for the fourth quarter compared to $11.0 million in the prior-year period. Full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA loss was $48.4 million compared to $41.6 million in the prior-year period.
   
   Shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024 were 148.6 million including 3.0 million shares that are subject to forfeiture based on share price performance targets previously disclosed in our filings.
   
   For a reconciliation of non-GAAP figures to the applicable GAAP figures, please see the table captioned ‘Reconciliation of GAAP and Non-GAAP Results' set forth at the end of this press release.
   
   Webcast and Conference Call Information
   
   Company management will host a webcast and conference call on March 13, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, to discuss the Company's financial results.
   
   Interested investors and other parties can listen to a webcast of the live conference call and access the Company’s quarterly update presentation by logging onto the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at investors.originmaterials.com/.
   
   The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing +1-844-481-2515 (domestic) or +1-412-317-0644 (international). A telephonic replay will be available approximately three hours after the call by dialing 1-844-512-2921, or for international callers, +1-412-317-6671. The conference ID for the live call and pin number for the replay is 10197107. The replay will be available until 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on March 20, 2025.
3. Pitmans 14 maart 2025 07:19

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   • Pitmans

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   Eerste marktreactie : in de laatste minuten reguliere handel zo'n 5% stijging, nabeurs nog eens 5% erbij. Dit alles wel na een daling met het sentiment van de laatste dagen mee naar een miezerige $0.81 , slot nabeurs $ 0.95
4. Pitmans 16 maart 2025 11:29

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   • Pitmans

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   Hmm, na premarkethandel op diezelfde niveaus op de dag ná publicatie, duikelde de koers bij opening van de reguliere handel naar een low van $0.78, om uiteindelijk weer aan te trekken tot hetzelfde niveau als vóór publicatie.
   Reden van de daling was volgens mij de wel erg wollige earnings call die gehouden werd na publicatie. De cijfers en outlook waren in lijn met de verwachtingen en dus bijv. positief dat de kas voldoende gevuld is om de operatie zonder emissie(s) te kunnen financieren totdat er goede omzet binnenkomt, maar het lukt het management niet om die positiviteit naar voren te brengen. Vreemd.
   Nu is het dus wachten op het moment dat afnemers akkoord gaan met het bekend maken van hun naam. Gezien de opmerkingen dat de produktie op voorhand al volledig afgezet is (en die is niet klein getuige "“Bachmann Group will help us produce billions of caps" investors.originmaterials.com/news-re..., moet het bij die klanten om grote namen gaan. Maar ook dat liet het management als detail in de call liggen.
   
   De samenvatting van Yahoo/Guru
   finance.yahoo.com/news/origin-materia...
   
   Origin Materials Inc (ORGN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Delays and Growth ...
   GuruFocus News - Fri, March 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM GMT+1 5 min read
   
   Revenue (Q4 2024): $9.2 million, compared to $13.1 million in Q4 2023.
   
   Annual Revenue (2024): $31.3 million, within guidance of $25 million to $35 million.
   
   Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Securities (End of 2024): $103 million, down from $158 million at the end of 2023.
   
   Cash Burn (2024): $55 million, at the low end of guidance range of $55 million to $65 million.
   
   Operating Expenses (Q4 2024): $16.2 million, down from $19.8 million in Q4 2023.
   
   Operating Expenses (Full Year 2024): $85.3 million, up from $60.1 million in 2023.
   
   Gross Margins (Cap Business): Expected to be in the mid-double digits range.
   
   Capital Cost per CapFormer Line: Mid-single-digit millions.
   
   Payback Period per Line: Less than 18 months.
   
   Expected 2026 Revenue: $110 million to $140 million, excluding potential licensing revenue.
   
   EBITDA Positive Run Rate: Expected by the end of 2026.
   
   Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with ORGN.
   
   Release Date: March 13, 2025
   
   For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript ( investors.originmaterials.com/static-... ).
   
   Positive Points
   
   Origin Materials Inc (NASDAQ:ORGN) successfully launched its first commercial PET cap manufacturing line, marking a significant milestone in its production capabilities.
   
   The company has begun commercial production and is shipping products to a growing list of customers for qualification, indicating strong demand for its products.
   
   Origin Materials Inc (NASDAQ:ORGN) plans to have 8 CapFormer lines online by the end of 2025, which is expected to significantly increase production capacity.
   
   The company has a substantial and growing intellectual property portfolio, with over 70 issued patents, enhancing its competitive advantage.
   
   Origin Materials Inc (NASDAQ:ORGN) has secured multiple MOUs with customers, indicating strong market interest and potential for future revenue growth.
   
   Negative Points
   
   The company experienced delays in getting its first CapFormer line operational, which has impacted the timeline for subsequent lines and revenue generation.
   
   Origin Materials Inc (NASDAQ:ORGN) has not provided specific revenue or EBITDA guidance for 2025, citing variability in customer demand and production ramp-up.
   
   The delay in the first CapFormer line has pushed back the expected timeline for achieving EBITDA positive results to the end of 2026.
   
   The company faces challenges in scaling up production to meet strong demand, with capital constraints potentially limiting the deployment of additional CapFormer lines.
   
   Origin Materials Inc (NASDAQ:ORGN) ended the year with a cash burn at the low end of its guidance, but the need for additional financing remains a concern as it ramps up production.
   
   Q & A Highlights
   Q: Can you elaborate on the timeline and qualification process for the caps produced from line 1? A: John Bissell, Co-CEO, explained that millions of caps have been produced from line 1 and are being sent for customer qualification. This involves testing the caps on capping and filling systems to ensure performance and reliability. The qualification process varies by customer size, with larger customers requiring more extensive testing. Additionally, caps from line 1 are used to qualify equipment for lines 2, 3, and 4.
   
   Q: Regarding the $100 million-plus contract, how is the timeline affected by the delay in line 1? A: John Bissell noted that the delay in starting line 1 has pushed back the initiation of purchases under the MOU by a similar amount of time. The contract remains a two-year term, now expected to extend into 2027. The production rate is expected to be higher in 2026, reflecting the ramp-up of CapFormer lines.
   
   Q: What is the minimum cash level you aim to maintain, and what is the cash burn forecast for 2025? A: Matthew Plavan, CFO, stated that while they haven't disclosed a specific minimum cash level, they aim to maintain at least 12 to 18 months of run rate cash. The operating expenses for 2024 were approximately $48 million, and they expect similar levels for 2025. The financing strategy involves using existing capital and raising debt to cover equipment purchases.
   
   Q: Can you explain the issues with line 1 and why they impact the EBITDA breakeven timeline? A: John Bissell explained that customer feedback led to adding a knurling feature to line 1, causing delays. This delay affected the qualification work for subsequent lines. The EBITDA breakeven timeline has been adjusted to reflect the uncertainty in forecasting more than a year out, now expected in 2026.
   
   Q: Why did you start with bottle caps instead of larger formats, given the cost advantages of larger caps? A: John Bissell stated that strong customer demand for the 1881 format drove the decision to start with bottle caps. The 1881 format represents a significant market, and the technology developed allows for flexibility to pursue both small and large formats without significant trade-offs.
   
   Q: What is the main bottleneck or constraint to bringing CapFormer lines online? A: John Bissell mentioned that for 2025, everything is in process, and the focus is on 2026. The main constraint is balancing the cost of capital with the deployment rate of CapFormer lines. As the technology is de-risked and financing becomes cheaper, they expect to deploy more lines.
   
   Q: How do you prioritize customers given the demand? A: John Bissell explained that customer prioritization involves balancing volume, margin, deployment flexibility, technical expertise, credibility, and strategic growth potential. There is no strict algorithm, but rather an artisanal balance of these factors.
   
   Q: What is your financing plan for 2025 and 2026? A: Matthew Plavan outlined a strategy involving existing capital and equipment-based debt financing. These sources will fund operations and the build-out of 8 CapFormer lines, expected to drive significant revenue and cash flow by the end of 2026.
   
   For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
5. Pitmans 18 maart 2025 19:55

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   • Pitmans

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   De cijfers hebben echt geen indruk gemaakt, de daling zet elke dag door.
   Op dit moment ruim onder 80 $cent , $0.763.
   Vandaag is dag 18 sinds de laatste dag dat het slot boven $1 lag. Nog 2 dagen onder $1 en de volgende Nasdaq non-compliance notice komt eraan...
6. Daexter 18 maart 2025 20:31

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   • Daexter

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   quote:

   Pitmans schreef op 18 maart 2025 19:55:

   De cijfers hebben echt geen indruk gemaakt, de daling zet elke dag door.
   Op dit moment ruim onder 80 $cent , $0.763.
   Vandaag is dag 18 sinds de laatste dag dat het slot boven $1 lag. Nog 2 dagen onder $1 en de volgende Nasdaq non-compliance notice komt eraan...
   

   Ze hebben ook een sell advies van de enige volgende analist. Dus ja... had je wat anders verwacht?
   
   Ik heb mijn positie nog steeds ik trek me niks aan van analisten dus ook niet van deze
7. Pitmans 20 maart 2025 08:07

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   quote:

   Daexter schreef op 18 maart 2025 20:31:

   [...]Ze hebben ook een sell advies van de enige volgende analist. Dus ja... had je wat anders verwacht?

   Correct.
   
   Maar met een price target van $1.50 . Dus wat verwacht je dan ?
8. Pitmans 24 april 2025 21:50

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   • Pitmans

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   Inmiddels al meer dan 2 maanden onder $1, dis de non-compliance notice van Nasdaq zal binnenkort wel op de deurmat vallen.
   In deze periode is een klein plukje op een all time low van slechts $0,42 verhandeld, wat grotere volumes gingen begin april voor iets meer dan 50 cent.
   Maar sinds die low is wel weer een stijging ingezet. Op moment van schrijven zelfs $0,83 , waarmee mijn aankoopkoers weer voorzichtig in beeld komt.
   Dit alles zonder enig nieuws, zowel negatief als positief. Het wachten blijft vooral op de eerste afnemer die met naam genoemd wil worden, nadat de nu lopende testfase is afgerond. Uiteraard moeten die tests dan wel goed verlopen.
   
   En oh ja, stilzwijgend is, getuige de data van Yahoo Finance, het koersdoel van de enige volgende analist (naam en werkgever mij onbekend) verlaagd van $1,50 maar $0,50.
   Volgens Origin zelf worden ze gevolgd door BofA en Fermium Research. Van BofA kan ik wel een bericht vinden dat 10 april het hold-advies opnieuw is bevestigd, maar geen price target. Van Fermium geen target, wel reports die alleen tegen betaling in zijn te zien.
9. Daexter 24 april 2025 22:07

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   quote:

   Pitmans schreef op 24 april 2025 21:50:

   Inmiddels al meer dan 2 maanden onder $1, dis de non-compliance notice van Nasdaq zal binnenkort wel op de deurmat vallen.
   In deze periode is een klein plukje op een all time low van slechts $0,42 verhandeld, wat grotere volumes gingen begin april voor iets meer dan 50 cent.
   Maar sinds die low is wel weer een stijging ingezet. Op moment van schrijven zelfs $0,83 , waarmee mijn aankoopkoers weer voorzichtig in beeld komt.
   Dit alles zonder enig nieuws, zowel negatief als positief. Het wachten blijft vooral op de eerste afnemer die met naam genoemd wil worden, nadat de nu lopende testfase is afgerond. Uiteraard moeten die tests dan wel goed verlopen.
   

   Nee niet zonder nieuws, eergisteren zag ik toevallig ook een q&a voorbij komen van Origin. Denk dat daar de stijging deels mee te maken heeft, maar zal ook voor een groot deel te maken hebben met het risk on nav de matiging van Trump inzake China.
   
   In antwoord op je post op het andere forum. Geert Schaaij heeft van februari of maart 2022 tot en met juni of juli 2024 een long positie in Avtx gehad. Ergens in februari of maart 2025 is hij weer ingestapt waarschijnlijk met een strakke stoploss, want uiterlijk 19 maart was die eruit, terwijl die op 8 maart er nog in zat.
   
   Ik ben jaren geleden begonnen met het frequent bijhouden van de beleggingen van deze zwendelaar om te zien wanneer hij een aandeel promoot, of beter om te zien of hij zelf ook in zijn koopaanbevelingen gelooft en of dat toevallig ook te maken heeft met of hij net zelf is ingestapt. Ik maak regelmatig ca eens in de 6 tot 8 weken een foto van zijn posities, die hij op zijn website plaats en leg dit vast met de datum.
10. Daexter 24 april 2025 22:09

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    quote:

    Pitmans schreef op 20 maart 2025 08:07:

    [...]Correct.
    
    Maar met een price target van $1.50 . Dus wat verwacht je dan ?
    

    Ja :) heel onlogisch inderdaad maar de markt reageert vaak debiel. Je ziet het ook vaak bij aandelen die bijvoorbeeld op 17 euro staan en dat het koersdoel dan verlaagd wordt van 26 naar 25 euro, dan gaat er ook vaak meerdere procenten vanaf. Maar ik trek me daar dus verder niks van aan.
12. Pitmans 24 april 2025 22:29

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    quote:

    Daexter schreef op 24 april 2025 22:07:

    [...]Nee niet zonder nieuws

    Sterker nog, ook vandaag 'nieuws', in die zin dat Simply Wall Street Origin in z'n top-penny-stocks-watch-april bespreekt.
    De kudde loopt daar zo weer achteraan, gelukkig.
    finance.yahoo.com/news/top-penny-stoc...
    Die viel er net pas in toen ik die post aan het tikken was.
13. Daexter 25 april 2025 17:14

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    De FAQ video
    
    vimeo.com/1076825881?share=copy#t=0